Royal LePage sees Canadian home prices rising 5.5% in 2021

Canadian real estate brokerage Royal LePage expects home prices to rise 5.5 per cent in 2021, building on unexpectedly strong growth this year, driven by a shortage of properties for sale and record low interest rates.

Royal LePage said the aggregate price of a home in Canada is set to rise year-over-year to $746,100 in 2021. The median price of a two-storey detached house and condominium are projected to increase six per cent and 2.25 per cent to $890,100 and $522,700, respectively. The aggregate home price is based on a weighted model that uses median prices and includes all housing types.

The forecast is at odds with others, including government-backed mortgage insurer Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, which predicts price decline in 2021, and some of the country's biggest banks, which foresee more muted growth.

"The upward pressure on home prices will continue," supported by lack of supply to meet surging demand and policy makers promise to keep interest rates at record low, Royal LePage chief executive Phil Soper said.

The average Canadian home price rose more than 15 per cent in October from a year earlier to an all-time high, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Lenders Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Nova Scotia said in their fiscal 2020 annual reports they expect house price growth of 0.6 per cent over the next 12 months, citing economic uncertainties spurred by the coronavirus pandemic, weakness in condominium markets and constrained housing affordability.

Royal LePage expects the shift to larger homes, which has driven a surge in sales and prices of single-family houses this year, will moderate as "life returns to normal," easing some of the pressure on condo markets.

Condominium demand is expected to be healthy in most of Canada's biggest cities, except Toronto, where softer demand is seen continuing in the city centre, the group said.

Ottawa and Vancouver are expected to lead the country, with increases of 11.5 per cent and nine per cent respectively, while Calgary and Edmonton are set to lag with growth of 0.75 per cent and 1.5 per cent. Toronto prices are expected to rise 5.75 per cent.

GTA REALTORS® Release November 2020 Stats

The record pace of home sales in the fall continued with 8,766 sales reported in November by Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) MLS® System. This result was up by 24.3 per cent compared to November of last year.

Generally speaking, year-over-year growth in sales was stronger for single-family homes in the GTA regions surrounding the City of Toronto, but annual single-family growth rates remained robust in the ‘416’ area code as well. “Home buyers continued to take advantage of very low borrowing costs in November, especially those looking to buy some form of single-family home. Competition between buyers for ground-oriented homes has been extremely strong in many neighbourhoods throughout the GTA, which has continued to support double-digit annual rates of price growth,” said Lisa Patel, TRREB President.

The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was up by 10.6 per cent in November 2020 compared to November 2019. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 13.3 per cent to $955,615.

Market conditions tightened in many single-family market segments in November, resulting in double-digit year-over-year increases in average selling prices for detached houses, semi-detached houses and townhouses.

In contrast to the single-family market segments, buyers continued to benefit from much more choice in the condominium apartment market compared to last year, particularly in the City of Toronto. The number of new condominium apartment listings in November was almost double that reported in November of last year. More options in the condo apartment market translated into a small year-over-year decline in the average condominium apartment selling price in the ‘416’ area code.

“The condominium apartment market is certainly more balanced than in previous years, with some buyers benefitting from lower selling prices compared to last year. However, this may be somewhat of a short-term phenomenon. Once we move into the post-COVID period, we will start to see a resumption of population growth, both from immigration and a return of non-permanent residents. This will lead to an increase in demand for condominium apartments in the ownership and rental markets,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB Chief Market Analyst.

TRREB MLS Average Resale Home Price November 2020

 

TRREB MLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio November 2020

 

TRREB MLS New Listings November 2020

 

TRREB MLS Sales November 2020

 

The Five Holiday Hazards to Watch Out For

 

CHRISTMAS TREES

Whether you've got an artificial or real tree, they can quickly become a fire hazard. If you're opting for a real tree, choose one that does not have brown needles, which indicate dryness and are more prone to catch fire. Make sure your holiday lights don't have any frayed wires. Keep your tree at least three feet away from heat sources like a fireplace, radiator or candles. And make sure your tree is stable with a sturdy stand. 

OVERUSED POWER SOCKETS

From outdoor lights to radiators to tree lights, a lot of electricity gets used during the holidays. Make sure to spread out your electrical use evenly across all the power sockets by using extension leads. 

DECORATIONS

Some decorations require you to use ladders in awkward places, which can put you at risk. Make sure you're using your ladder in optimal weather conditions where there's no ice and wind. And make sure you've got the right ladder size for the job. 

CANDLES

Nothing exudes winter warmth better than a set of flickering candles. Keep your home safe by ensuring candles are kept away from trees, decorations and anything else that can burn. Make sure they're in stable holders and never leave them unattended. For peace of mind, opt for flameless LED candles, many of which come with a remote control for easy operation. 

WRAPPING PAPER

Before you enjoy the new gift you just opened, make sure you throw out the wrapping paper as soon as possible. Some paper, ribbons and foils contain lead and can be very dangerous if babies and pets come in contact with them. Having loose wrapping paper lying around the house also poses a fire hazard, so it's best to discard them right after the gift-opening session. 

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TRREB MLS AVERAGE RESALE HOME PRICE OCTOBER 2020

 

TRREB MLS SALES-TO-NEW LISTINGS RATIO OCTOBER 2020

 

TRREB MLS NEW LISTINGS OCTOBER 2020

 

TRREB MLS SALES OCTOBER 2020

 

GTA REALTORS® Release October 2020 Stats

Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) were up again year-over-year for the fourth month in a row. Our Members made 10,563 sales as reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s MLS® System in October 2020. This was up by 25.1 per cent compared to 8,445 transactions in October 2019.

Sales and new listings reached record levels for the month of October. However, year-over-year growth rates for sales and new listings diverged in some market segments. In the detached market segment, the pace of annual sales growth far outstripped growth in new listings. Conversely, the condominium apartment market segment experienced more than double the new listings compared to October 2019, whereas sales were only up by 2.2 per cent over the same period.

“Competition between buyers of single-family homes, and particularly detached houses, remained strong last month and continued to support double-digit annual rates of price growth in many GTA neighbourhoods. In contrast, condo buyers have benefitted from much more choice compared to last year. Pre-COVID polling had already pointed to an increase in investor selling in 2020. The pandemic only added to this trend with a stall in economic growth and a halt to tourism impacting cashflows for many investors,” said Lisa Patel, TRREB’s President.

The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was up by 10.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October 2020. The average selling price for all home types combined was $968,318 – up by 13.7 per cent compared to $851,877 in October 2019.

“Year-to-date home sales through October were above last year’s level. The economic recovery in some sectors coupled with low borrowing costs has kept home purchases top-of-mind for many GTA residents. With this being said, we have not accounted for all of the pent-up demand that resulted from the spring downturn. Expect record or near-record home sales for the remainder of 2020,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

How To Clean Your Home and Keep it Virus-Free

Along with social distancing and frequent hand washing, keeping your home clean is another important step in protecting your family and reducing the spread of COVID-19. Since the virus can be found on surfaces and objects, it’s important to clean and disinfect your home thoroughly to reduce your chances of getting sick. Pandemic or not, this is good habit to start practicing. Here’s where to start.

 

USE EFFECTIVE PRODUCTS

It’s important to note the difference between cleaning and disinfecting. Cleaning removes dirt and impurities on surfaces, but it does not kill germs. Disinfecting kills germs on surfaces through the use of chemicals, but it does not necessarily remove dirt and impurities. If you have a dirty surface, clean it first with soap and water, then apply a commercial disinfectant that contains bleach or alcohol. Check Health Canada’s website for the list of approved disinfectants. If you want to make your own, Health Canada recommends using diluted bleach (one part bleach to nine parts water). Never mix household bleach with ammonia or any other cleaners.

 

FOCUS ON THESE PARTICULAR AREAS

Some surfaces attract more germs than others. You probably know what they are: doorknobs, light switches, faucets, drawer pulls, keys, phones, countertops, tables, keyboards, remote controls, toilet, fridge handles, toys, and fitness equipment. Put on disposable gloves and wipe these surfaces regularly.

 

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF SOMEONE IS SICK

If someone in your home is sick, you’ll need to take extra steps. If you’re sharing a bathroom, the person who is sick should clean and disinfect after each use. Wash dishes and utensils with soap and hot water. Line trach cans with plastic bags. Launder clothes on the warmest water setting, avoid shaking dirty laundry, and clean and disinfect hampers often. 

WASH YOUR HANDS AFTER YOU'RE FINISHED

Once you’re done cleaning, throw out your gloves and wash your hands right away with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

TRREB MLS Sales-to-New Listings Ratio September 2020

 

TRREB MLS Average Resale Home Price September 2020

 

TRREB MLS New Listings September 2020

 

TRREB MLS Sales September 2020

 

GTA REALTORS® Release September 2020 Stats

Toronto Regional Real Estate Board President Lisa Patel announced that sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System by Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® amounted to 11,083 – a new record for the month of September. This result was up by 42.3 per cent compared to September 2019. Following a record third quarter, sales through the first nine months of 2020 were up by approximately one per cent compared to the same period in 2019.

“Improving economic conditions and extremely low borrowing costs sustained record-level sales in September, as we continued to account for the substantial amount of pent-up demand that resulted from the spring downturn. Further improvements in the economy, including job growth, would support strong home sales moving forward. However, it will be important to monitor the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, the related government policy response, and the impact on jobs and consumer confidence,” said Ms. Patel.

Year-over-year sales growth in September continued to be driven by ground-oriented market segments, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses. Annual growth rates were also higher for sales reported in the GTA regions surrounding the City of Toronto.

The September 2020 MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 11.6 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price for all home types combined in September was $960,772 – up by 14 per cent year-over-year. Price growth was driven by the low-rise market segments. The relatively better supplied condominium apartment segment experienced a comparatively slower pace of price growth.

“On a GTA-wide basis, market conditions tightened in September relative to last year, with sales increasing at a faster pace than new listings. With competition between buyers increasing noticeably, double-digit year-over-year price growth was commonplace throughout the region in September, resulting in the overall average selling price reaching a new record,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

TREB MLS Average Resale Home Price April 2020

TREB MLS Sales-To-New Listings Ratio April 2020

TREB MLS New Listings April 2020

TREB MLS Sales April 2020

TREB MLS Average Resale Home Price - January 2020

TREB MLS Sales-To New Listings Ratio - January 2020

TREB MLS New Listings January 2020

TREB MLS Sales January 2020

GTA REALTORS® Release January 2020 Stats

TRREB President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,581 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in January 2020 – up by 15.4 per cent compared to January 2019. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 4.8 per cent compared to December 2019. 

“We started 2020 where 2019 left off, with very strong growth in the number of sales up against a continued dip in the number of new and available listings. Tighter market conditions compared to a year ago resulted in much stronger growth in average selling prices. Steady population growth, low unemployment and low borrowing costs continued to underpin substantial competition between buyers in all major market segments,” said Mr. Collins. 

The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark price was up by 8.7 per cent compared to January 2019 – the highest annual rate of growth for the Benchmark since October 2017. The condominium apartment market segment continued to lead the way in terms of MLS HPI® price growth, but all home types experienced price growth above seven per cent when considering the TRREB market area as a whole. The average selling price in January was up by 12.3 per cent, driven by the detached and condominium apartment segments in the City of Toronto. 

“A key difference in the price growth story in January 2020 compared to January 2019 was in the low-rise market segments, particularly with regard to detached houses. A year seems to have made a big difference. It is clear that many buyers who were on the sidelines due to the OSFI stress test are moving back into the market, driving very strong year-over-year sales growth in the detached segment. Strong sales up against a constrained supply continues to result in an accelerating rate of price growth,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Director of Market Analysis and Service Channels.

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TREB MLS Market Watch For December 2019 - Average Resale Home Price

TREB MLS Market Watch For December 2019 - Sales-To-New Listings Ratio

TREB MLS Market Watch for December 2019 - New Listings

TREB MLS Market Watch - Sales December 2019

GTA REALTORS® Release December and Annual 2019 Stats

January 7, 2020 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins reported that December 2019 residential sales reported through TREB's MLS® System by Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® were up by 17.4 per cent year-over-year to 4,399. Total sales for calendar year 2019 amounted to 87,825 – up by 12.6 per cent compared to the decade low 78,015 sales reported in 2018. On an annual basis, 2019 sales were in line with the median annual sales result for the past decade.
"We certainly saw a recovery in sales activity in 2019, particularly in the second half of the year. As anticipated, many home buyers who were initially on the sidelines moved back into the market place starting in the spring. Buyer confidence was buoyed by a strong regional economy and declining contract mortgage rates over the course of the year," said Mr. Collins.
While sales were up in 2019, the number of new listings entered into TREB's MLS® System was down by 2.4 per cent year-over-year. For the past decade, annual new listings have been largely in a holding pattern between 150,000 and 160,000, despite the upward trend in home prices over the same period.
"Over the last ten years, TREB has been drawing attention to the housing supply issue in the GTA. Increasingly, policy makers, research groups of varying scope and other interested parties have acknowledged that the lack of a diverse supply of ownership and rental housing continues to hamper housing affordability in the GTA. Taking 2019 as an example, we experienced a strong sales increase up against a decline in supply. Tighter market conditions translated into accelerating price growth. Expect further acceleration in 2020 if there is no relief on the supply front," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Chief Market Analyst.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 7.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in December 2019. From June 2019 onward, the annual growth rate in the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark accelerated. The average selling price in December 2019 was $837,788 – up almost 12 per cent year-over-year. For calendar year 2019, the average selling price was $819,319 – up by four per cent compared to $787,856 in 2018.